Comments on: Industry Rule #4080 – Peak Oil http://alwayseatingbreakfast.wordpress.com/2008/05/23/peak-oil-really/ Things that matter. Fri, 11 Sep 2009 15:47:51 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Art http://alwayseatingbreakfast.wordpress.com/2008/05/23/peak-oil-really/#comment-135 Art Fri, 20 Jun 2008 13:43:35 +0000 http://alwayseatingbreakfast.wordpress.com/?p=66#comment-135 Somehow i missed the point. Probably lost in translation :) Anyway ... nice blog to visit. cheers, Art Somehow i missed the point. Probably lost in translation :) Anyway … nice blog to visit.

cheers, Art

]]> By: Brad L http://alwayseatingbreakfast.wordpress.com/2008/05/23/peak-oil-really/#comment-110 Brad L Fri, 23 May 2008 15:37:03 +0000 http://alwayseatingbreakfast.wordpress.com/?p=66#comment-110 There are certainly other issues that raise oil prices besides peak oil fears, but I'd argue that promotions like Chrysler's (which is definitely more loaded than a simple reduced lease offer) undeniably muddy the waters. Add this to the conflicting reports that you mention above and to the facts that many of Hubbard's hypotheses have proven unreliable, that Saudi oil production is shrouded in secrecy, that independent watch-dogs like the ones mentioned above are political tools, that fear of a rapid decline in oil production has been continually exploited over the past century, etc. etc., and it seems like no one really has a clue. As such, things rapidly get out of hand, and a window is provided for the oil industry to set the agenda. There are certainly other issues that raise oil prices besides peak oil fears, but I’d argue that promotions like Chrysler’s (which is definitely more loaded than a simple reduced lease offer) undeniably muddy the waters. Add this to the conflicting reports that you mention above and to the facts that many of Hubbard’s hypotheses have proven unreliable, that Saudi oil production is shrouded in secrecy, that independent watch-dogs like the ones mentioned above are political tools, that fear of a rapid decline in oil production has been continually exploited over the past century, etc. etc., and it seems like no one really has a clue. As such, things rapidly get out of hand, and a window is provided for the oil industry to set the agenda.

]]> By: Marc B http://alwayseatingbreakfast.wordpress.com/2008/05/23/peak-oil-really/#comment-109 Marc B Fri, 23 May 2008 14:55:55 +0000 http://alwayseatingbreakfast.wordpress.com/?p=66#comment-109 There are a couple extra issues at play here, one is the regular incentives that all car companies give to buyers. Chrysler would give you the gas deal <i>or</i> low financing. To the company the deals are financially the same. It's just a different way to present it to the consumer. Second, the peak oil hypothesis, as presented by the Princeton geologist Hubbard, has significant evidence behind it, and has accurately predicted the peak production of mature oil fields like Texas. The issue is when it is taken too far, and turned into a religion, and blown out of proportion. Also, in predicting that oil prices will remain stable and supplies will increase, the EIA [ http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/contents.html ] and DOE also often contradict themselves in the reports that they release. Like they will assume that OPEC will continue to pump more oil while also assuming very low price elasticity. Third, there is ravenous demand from developing economies that, while probably not justification for the current price of oil at about $135, has probably forever pushed oil from a buyers to a sellers market. And also, while there is evidence that the current price is a bubble, it does not have all the classic signs associated with one, like the 2000 tech stock bubble. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/21/business/21oil.html?em&ex=1211688000&en=91b9b007fb2865ed&ei=5087%0A There are a couple extra issues at play here, one is the regular incentives that all car companies give to buyers. Chrysler would give you the gas deal or low financing. To the company the deals are financially the same. It’s just a different way to present it to the consumer.

Second, the peak oil hypothesis, as presented by the Princeton geologist Hubbard, has significant evidence behind it, and has accurately predicted the peak production of mature oil fields like Texas. The issue is when it is taken too far, and turned into a religion, and blown out of proportion. Also, in predicting that oil prices will remain stable and supplies will increase, the EIA [ http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/contents.html ] and DOE also often contradict themselves in the reports that they release. Like they will assume that OPEC will continue to pump more oil while also assuming very low price elasticity.

Third, there is ravenous demand from developing economies that, while probably not justification for the current price of oil at about $135, has probably forever pushed oil from a buyers to a sellers market.

And also, while there is evidence that the current price is a bubble, it does not have all the classic signs associated with one, like the 2000 tech stock bubble.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/21/business/21oil.html?em&ex=1211688000&en=91b9b007fb2865ed&ei=5087

]]>