Accuscore Predicts Game Results

I stumbled across this today.

It’s a website that simulates sporting events 10,000 times and averages the outcomes into predictions.  I was very interested in their prediction that Ryan Howard had a 30% chance of hitting a home run, and Manny Ramirez had a 20% chance.  Now anyone can see that currently Manny is crushing baseballs and Howard is rolling over balls to second base that he should be driving to left field.  I like stats as much as anyone, but this is a clear small-sample-size variation (ie. Manny is hot and Howard is not).  BUT!  Then I though how cool it would be if that prediction was taking into account the amount of walks that Manny is getting.  Because he is swinging so well, Ramirez received three walks last night in game 4.  Howard has walked that many times in the whole postseason.  If walks were taken into account, as well as the reletive hot streaks of the hitters, I think I would agree with the prediction.  Neato!

***UPDATE***

Manny did hit a home run, not Howard. And the Phillies won. 1 point for random variability.

y’all ready for some moonshots?

I’ll never forget the time in Pittsburgh when Ryan Howard hit the tent that John Kruk was in in deep right center field.  What a shot.

The Home Run Derby at the All Star Game in Yankee Staduim is on tonight on ESPN at 8pm EST.